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By: CityBusiness staff reports October 4, 2022 0
The New Orleans area is projected to add 12,200 jobs over the next two years, according to economist Loren Scott, whose annual Louisiana Economic Outlook was released Tuesday.
The forecast says the region, comprised of Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, St. Charles, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes, will add 3,600 jobs in 2023, and 8,600 jobs in 2024. But even if that happens, it will still lag employment numbers seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The jobs would stem from billions of dollars in industrial construction, led by a $13.2 billion Venture Global LNG export terminal in Plaquemines Parish, and major investments in coastal restoration and flood control projects. But many are dependent on whether numerous other projects materialize, most of them industrial developments outside New Orleans.
They include a $9.4 billion Formosa Petrochemical plant in St. James Parish that has run into recent obstacles; two large LNG export terminals, a methanol project and a Pointe LNG export terminal in Plaquemines Parish; a $500 million Greenfield Louisiana grain terminal that has faced opposition in St. John the Baptist Parish; a smaller Calucem Cement specialty cement plant announced for New Orleans East; a $1.4 billion alternative fuel production facility at the Shell refinery site in Convent; and the redevelopment of Avondale Shipyard in Jefferson Parish, which officially opens for business Friday.
Additional investments to watch include a $1.85 billion methanol plant in St. James, PBF Energy’s $50 million conversion of a Chalmette refinery into a renewable diesel complex; an $800 million project by ElementUS to extract rare earths from alumina byproducts in St. James; $234 million in upgrades to Shell/Equilon facilities; and Kinder Morgan’s $88.6 million plant in Harvey to turn raw materials into renewable fuels, scheduled to open early next year. About $5 billion a year will be spent on these projects over the next two years, giving the region’s economy “a nice tailwind,” according to the report.
Billions of dollars in coastal restoration and flood control projects will be injected into the region over the next two years, the report says. Much of that will be spent on the St. Charles/St. John massive levee system. The report also cites private/public construction projects underway, including a renovation of the Superdome, a redevelopment of Charity Hospital, an Ochsner Health “super-clinic” under construction at Clearview City Center in Metairie, a renovation of Caesars’ hotel and casino in downtown New Orleans, a new Amazon distribution center in Slidell and more.
The New Orleans area “has a good ways to go” before recovering the 112,000 jobs it lost due to the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020, according to the report. The region had recovered only 61% of those jobs by June 2022, the report says. Hurricane Ida in 2021 provided a 34,200-job setback that was recovered in January 2022, it said.
The city’s tourism industry hasn’t fully rebounded, with the number of conventions scheduled in 2022 55% lower than in 2020, the report says. The sector is expected to face more setbacks through a national recession, but “strong industrial construction and natural recovery of COVID-related losses” will buoy the local economy through the downturn, according to the report.
Even if the region adds the jobs projected over the next two years, it will still be 66,000 jobs below its peak employment level in 2001, the report says. The New Orleans area lost 133,700 jobs to Hurricane Katrina.
Louisiana as a whole is projected to add 14,300 jobs in 2021 and another 30,800 jobs in 2024. Even if those come to fruition, the state will still be 38,000 jobs short of its pre-COVID employment level, the report says.
A national recession may not hinder the state much, it says, since Louisiana has a relatively small durable goods manufacturing base. A tight labor market is expected to loosen as financial pressures send more people back to work.
“We believe this will be another one of those national recessions in which Louisiana’s employment actually grows,” the report says.
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